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One day above 70F and then back into the murk

 Last night and this morning, a front moved through bringing rain and gusty winds.  As shown by the water vapor imagery on Saturday (below(, this front was tapping into a huge plume of water vapor stretching thousands of miles across the Pacific that has been present for weeks.

The key issue feature driving our cool, cloudy weather has been the existence of the persistent area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska (see the upper level--500 hPa/about 18,000 ft-- map for today at 5 AM below, the temperature at the level is shown by shading, orange/red is warmer).  

With low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and higher pressure in the subtropics, the result is a large change of pressure, which results in a strong western jet stream.  Which brings in moisture from the west.     The atmosphere is really like a big Rube Goldberg machine!

Fortunately, there will be a significant break on Tuesday afternoon as a modest ridge of high pressure builds over the region (see upper-level map below, with an arrow indicating the high-pressure ridge).    You note the tongue of warm air moving northward over the West Coast.

According to the National Weather Service's top forecasting aid, the National Blend of Models, temperatures at SeaTac could surge to 71F on Tuesday...imagine that!  Before falling back into the 60s.

The big problem is that our old friend, the Gulf of Alaska trough, will rebuild, leading to an even wetter system at the end of the week (the upper level map at 5 AM next Saturday is shown).

This is getting very old.  The UW WRF model's 48-h total rainfall ending 5 PM Saturday shows heavy rain over the mountains (the orange to red colors) and moderate rain elsewhere.

Controversial Note:

    When in the world will the U.S. Drought Monitor pull down the SEVERE DROUGHT it has over a large area of eastern Washington?  This is widely inconsistent with observations.

Less Controversial Note:

I will be giving a talk and do a book signing at the Northgate Barnes and Noble in Seattle on Saturday, June 25th at 1 PM.  

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